Scenario Planning Engages Lay Leadership

Scenario planning can be an effective tool for churches to develop ministry opportunities and infrastructures. A future based scenario plan involves incorporating future trend data and projections into a "what if" planning process. A group is assembled comprised of church leadership who plan as if the event or condition is the current state. For example, a disaster scenario much like the hurricane that devastated New Orleans, can be used to organize emergency response teams as well as developing a process for the collection of emergency resources.

The scenario planning process is a beneficial tool to teach church leaders to engage and plan cooperatively. A church may also choose to engage other churches or organization in their planning which is very helpful in broadening the ministry network for your community. By engaging in the planning process, a church will often discover other more immediate opportunities for them to minister to the community. Whether the condition actualizes or not, the process is the beneficial outcome of the approach. Moving lay leaders and pastoral staff toward more effective planning and execution is a important benefit of this fun exercise.

If you would like to develop a scenario planning effort at your church, the following steps will help you get started.

1. Determine a scenario around which you will plan. Appoint an individual or small group to write a scenario for the group to consider. Use a computer search engine to accumulate data from which they will write a 2 to 3 page scenario description that includes the cause and effect of the scenario. Do not include a solution or response to the scenario. Simply describe what happened in the present tense and the nature of the impact to your community or your targeted community. If you need suggestions search for "future trends" and select a scenario such as world wide flu epidemic, severe shortage of water, or large elderly population without healthcare insurance.

2. Distribute the scenario to your scenario planning team giving them a couple of weeks to study and contemplate possible solutions.

3. Come together as a team to brainstorm solutions. Get everything on the table. Don't allow the group to get too far into detailed solutions until you have discussed each broader solution.

4. Decide upon 3 possible solutions and divide your group into teams to further develop the details of the 3 possible solutions. Don't spend more than a couple of hours on this effort.

5. Bring the groups back together and have the 3 groups present their initial thoughts. As a group, then decide which among the 3 proposed solutions (or a hybrid of the 3) will be the selected solution. As an entire planning group, further develop the chosen solution to include specific actions, resources needed and persons accountable for the effort.

After developing the above plan, step back (perhaps at a later meeting) to see what lessons can be learned from the process and whether there are some immediate ministry opportunities that the group can pursue. Generally, lay leaders will become more involved in the ministry planning process and will often discover a passion they have for a ministry through the process.

By using a scenario planning methodology, pastors and lay leaders become more familiar with their community, their talents and their calling.

If you would like to schedule a Convergence led scenario planning event at your church, contact Casey Cease for details.

Checkers vs. Chess

I prefer checkers to chess. I know chess is considered by many to be the more mature game of the two, but checkers doesn’t require as much thought or strategy. Sure, there is some strategy involved with checkers, but you could easily play checkers without having to think nearly as hard. Also, with checkers you can be more reactive if you were feeling particularly lazy.

However, one day I was driving and I was thinking about how I was leading my life, family, and ministry. That is when the metaphor of checkers vs. chess first popped up in my mind regarding life and leadership. I had been leading my life with a reaction-driven mentality, and often was moving forward impulsively hoping for the best and not thinking about how my current ‘moves’ would be impacting the future. I was viewing my life like a person who was playing checkers.

I’m not very good at chess, and perhaps this is one of the reasons why I do not prefer it to checkers. However, I know people who are great at chess and often think many moves ahead. They are responsive, strategic, and are aware how one move will effect another opportunity. When I realized this it hit me, “I need to begin viewing life and leadership like a chess player!”

As ministers, leaders, spouses, parents, and teammates we can learn a lot from this metaphor. Most of us lead our lives and all that is involved as lazy checker players. We have tons of opportunities and options on our plate and rather than slowly considering the long-term goals and visions we are serving, we usually react to the most appealing options and ‘fires’ that pop up. Of course, we all have seasons of life when this is inevitable, however, this tends to be the norm rather than the exception for many.

It is not easy to change how we view life, especially if we have forced ourselves into a place where disorganization rules our lives. I know first hand how crippling disorganization can be, so the first step to transition from checker-style living to living like a chess player is to get organized, which I recently did. Also, it will take some time to sit and consider how your current decisions are going to effect long-term impact on you, your family, your church, or your organization. However, this is imperative in order to shift your thinking and outlook.

Those of us who are in any leadership position have a lot that is required of us. The stress builds up quickly and we are forced to make a lot of decisions. However, it is possible to be more strategic in our approach and this is why I hope you will commit to shifting your thinking away from reacting like a checker player and learn to be responsive and strategic like a chess player. You will find that the more you demonstrate this shift, the more your people (family, church members, etc.) will trust you and follow your lead, and the lower stress you will experience in the long-run. Leading like a chess player requires that we keep the end in mind (capturing the King) while being intentional about the steps in getting there.

Should vs. Could

It’s like watching a wave roll across the ocean to see seemingly great ideas make their way through the church circuit. Tends to be a great deal of “me-too” going on these days when it comes to good ideas. Some ideas, though, are not so great.

Church #1 thinks it would be very unique and oh-so “post-something-or-other” for the pastor to read poetry barefoot in a hemp robe and before you know it, the local doctor has pastors from Church # 2-5 lined up to get medication for the hemp-robe-rash going around town. It’s a viral reaction when we see a great idea and feel compelled to call it our own. We just can't help it.

Yet, great ideas can range from distractive to destructive when we fail to consider the difference between “should” and “could” decisions. A great idea is only great if it fit’s the urgent and specific purpose to which our church is called, organized and inclined to pursue. A great idea that doesn’t fit the specific purpose to which you are directing your strategic focus-- is not a great idea.

During the course of your planning, thinking, showering, driving -- you will generate thousands of potentially great ideas, but you must carefully remind yourself that you “could” certainly implement that creative aha (because after all, you are the pastor, no out of touch deacon could withstand the awesome power of this Wow of an effort) -- but, “should” you implement the masterpiece is the big question.

Ideas that do not fit your purpose are counter-productive and time consuming. They often require additional expenditure to overcome their ill-fitting impact and momentum devouring force. As a leader your greatest contribution to your organization hinges on your judgment. Think it through. Don’t fall prey to the victimization of a great idea that is a “could” but not a “should.”